Caribbean region continues to experience heat stress
The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says tropical Pacific and Atlantic Ocean temperatures should remain well above average, continuing to amplify heat stress in the Caribbean by increasing temperatures, humidity and heatwave frequency to rival the warmest conditions on record (2010, 2016 and 2020).
In its forecast for the period August to October 2023, it noted the coinciding hot Pacific and Atlantic have opposing effects on Caribbean rainfall and hurricane season activity.
For now, the record-warm Atlantic appears predominant in much of the islands, resulting in limited drought concern. In contrast, the potential for flooding, flash floods and cascading hazards will be high due to copious rains.
By contrast, the Guianas will be predominantly drier and hotter from mid-August.
According to CariCOF, rainfall totals from August to October are likely to be the usual or higher across the ABC Islands, The Bahamas, the Greater Antilles and in the Leeward Islands. By contrast, Barbados, Belize, the Guianas, Trinidad & Tobago and the Windward Islands will likely record the usual rainfall amounts or less.
Looking at night and daytime temperatures up to October, Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter said temperatures are forecast uncomfortably high to many, mainly because they will likely end up even higher than usual during the second half of the annual Heat Season.
Moreover, humidity and the frequency of heatwaves will ramp up in August and September, further increasing heat stress in a heating season that may rival the record-hot years 2010, 2016 and 2020.
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