Colorado State University report 2021 Hurricane season is above average
The Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project Team predicts an “above average” Atlantic hurricane season this year, with 17 named storms. This includes eight hurricanes, four of which are predicted to become major hurricanes.
CSU cited the likely absence of El Niño as a primary factor.
CSU said in a forecast published on April 8, “Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are near their long-term averages, while subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than their long-term average values. The warmer subtropical Atlantic also favours an active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season.”
The CSU team bases its forecasts on models that use 40 years of historical hurricane data and evaluates conditions including Sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, Vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño and other factors.
The tropical Pacific currently has weak La Niña conditions; that is, water temperatures are somewhat cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. While these waters may warm slightly during the next few months, CSU does not currently anticipate El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.
The 2021 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011 and 2017, says CSU. According to Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report. These seasons all had above-average Atlantic hurricane activity.
The CSU team predicts that this year’s hurricane activity will be about 140%t of the average season. Last year’s “above average” season saw about 170% of the average season.
CSU will issue hurricane forecast updates on June 3, July 8 and Aug. 5.
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