Hurricane Season: 15 storms, 7 hurricanes predicted
At least one major hurricane is being forecast to pass through the Caribbean this year.
That is the finding from Colorado State University (CSU) which issued an updated forecast for the 2023 hurricane season, which begins today, June 1.
The University said there is a 47 per cent probability of at least one major hurricane, between categories three and five, tracking through the Caribbean.
CSU said information obtained through May indicates that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity near the 1991–2020 average.
Counting the recently identified subtropical storm formed in January, CSU predicts 15 named storms in the basin this year.
"We estimate that 2023 will have an additional 14 named storms (average is 14.4), 57.75 named storm days (average is 69.4), seven hurricanes (average is 7.2), 30 hurricane days (average is 27.0), three major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 3.2) and seven major hurricane days (average is 7.4)," CSU said.
CSU said El Niño development appears imminent; however, the intensity of a potential El Niño event remains uncertain.
El Niño typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity through increases in vertical wind shear.
However, CSU said sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are near or at record levels, so despite the high potential for an El Niño, the impacts on low Atlantic/Caribbean vertical wind shear may not be as strong as is typically experienced given the hot Atlantic.
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