World at risk of hitting temperature limit in next five years, scientists warn
A major study says by 2025; there's a 40% chance of at least one year being 1.5C hotter than the pre-industrial level. Global average temperatures of 1.5C above 19th-century levels are seen as a threshold beyond which the most dangerous impacts of climate change will be felt. In 2020 it was 1.2C above pre-industrial levels, making it among the three hottest years on record that's the lower of two temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement on climate change.
The conclusion comes in a report published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The analysis is based on modelling by the UK Met Office and climate researchers in 10 countries, including the US and China. In the last decade, it's estimated that the chance of anyone year reaching the 1.5C threshold was only 20%.
Leon Hermanson, a senior Met Office scientist, comparing projected temperatures with those of 1980-1900 shows a clear rise."What it means is that we're approaching 1.5C - we're not there yet, but we're getting close", he said."Time is running out for the strong action which we need now."
The researchers point out that even if one of the next five years is 1.5C above the pre-industrial level, it'll be a temporary situation. As hosts of the G7 summit in June and the key Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow in November, the UK Government must demonstrate it will deliver on its ambitious climate targets, he said.
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